Within days, we should know whether MetLife Stadium will take center stage in what's arguably the most beloved sporting event on the planet.
On Thursday, FIFA, the international soccer federation, plans to announce the host cities forthe 2026 men's World Cup, the quadrennial tournament that draws millions of spectators to more than 80 matches, including a final expected to draw more than 1 billion television viewers.
The 83,000-seat stadium in the Meadowlands is among the favorites, and Gov. Phil Murphy and other proponents have touted a potential $500 million windfall for New York and New Jersey, which have submitted a joint bid.
But economists and some local officials aren't so sure.
“That’s what they always say,” said Andrew Zimbalist, a sports economist from Smith College in Massachusetts, who has studied the industry for more than a half-century. “It’s not likely there’s any bonanza.”
If past sporting mega-events are any guide, the payoff is likely to be more modest, they say. The few plansthat state officials have made public suggest that most World Cup tourists– and their dollars– will stay in New York, even if the action on the pitch occurswest of the Hudson.
There's no doubt aWorld Cup would bring revenue and prestige to the Meadowlands. "As an avid soccer fan, I'm thrilled about the opportunity to host the world's greatest game on the world's biggest stage," Murphy said in September when FIFA officials touredMetLife.
But there would also be added strain on local police, roadways and mass transit. For one, the local bidis relying on a 33% increase in hotel room capacity in the Meadowlands area to house World Cup visitors, according to one of the few documents made public by the two states.
Two previous headline events at the stadium, the 2014 Super Bowl and a 2019 WrestleMania, unleashed travel nightmares for spectators, though NJ Transit officials say they've learned from those experiences.
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The 2026 tournament will be spread across16 cities in the U.S., Mexico and Canada, with the U.S set to host 60 matches in the 48-team competition. Mexico and Canada will each host 10 matches.
The U.S Soccer Federation has backed MetLife, the biggest venue, to hostthe championship match, but the location of the final contest may not be announced for months.
“These are fun events,” said Victor Matheson, a sports economist with the College of the Holy Cross in Massachusetts. “If I were mayor of NYC, I would certainly want the event there so I can rub elbows with world leaders."
But Matheson said fans drawn to major sporting events like a World Cup “tend to displace other visitors” who'd normally visit an area, rather than add to them.
'I'm probably not staying' in NJ
While spectators will no doubt shell out for food andsouvenirsat MetLife, they're more likely to spend the bulk or their time and money in New York, he said.
“If I had Super Bowl ticket sort of money, I’d be staying in Times Square and I’d take whatever shuttle it is they have" to the Meadowlands, he said. "I’m probably not staying in Newark… [at] a La Quinta along the New Jersey Turnpike.”
Zimbalist likewise dismissed arguments for a big economic impact from hotel stays, restaurants and other local spending
“If you don’t draw additional people to the area," he said,"all of that stuff doesn’t happen."
FIFA estimates more than 3 million people attended matches at the 2018 World Cup in Russia, including 78,000 at the finals in Moscow.
State and regional officials haven't released much detail about the expected costs or benefits of hosting the games, beyond the half-billion dollar figure mentioned during FIFA's tour last fall.
Murphy’s office and the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, which owns the Meadowlands Sports Complex,declined repeated requests in the past few weeks to explain how they arrived at that figure.
They declined to say what upgrades, if any, would be needed to the stadium or local transit, infrastructure or public safety, or the potential price tags. They also declined to say on the record why they couldn't provide the information.
U.S. Soccer and FIFA also declined to comment for this story.
Like all would-be hosts, New York and New Jersey submitted a detailed bid explaining their World Cup plans. Murphy's office and the authority have declined to release that document.
On Friday, the Sports Authority denied a public records request to release the document, arguing it includes "financial and business terms that were intended to be confidential" between FIFA and the state. "If disclosed, the NJSEA's positions wouldinevitably be harmed by such information being used by NJSEA’s competitors," the agency said.
'Millions' for Meadowlands tourism
In a written statement, NJSEA spokesperson Brian Aberback said the World Cup would “showcase our state to a global audience while generating millions of dollars to New Jersey’s outstanding tourism industry.”
It would be a chance to “spotlight” both the stadium “and our vibrant downtowns, abundant shopping and dining hotspots, and additional amenities," Aberback said.
Yet officials in East Rutherford, which surrounds the site, said they've grown weary of such large-scale events.
"Every large event that goes on there is a traffic nightmare," Mayor Jeffrey Lahullier said in an interview. During the 2014 Super Bowl, the borough spent $5,000 in police overtime directing trafficand forpublic workers for clean up after the event, he said.
His predecessor, James Casella, complained that the NFL treated the Super Bowl like a New York City eventand provided no aid to promote local events like a borough tailgate party.
One saving grace could be the World Cup's monthlong schedule. That could provide more opportunity for local business than the one-weekend Super Bowl, Casella said. But New Jersey will have to work hard not to be overshadowed by New York, he added.
MetLife among FIFA favorites
Ofthe 16 U.S.stadiums still in the running, MetLife has the biggest seating capacity, meaning more tickets that can be sold. That makes it an attractive choice, especially for the finals, said Matheson.
Opened in 2010, MetLife is also one of the youngest contenders, with modern amenities that will also stand out.New York City and its major media outlets, tourism destinations, hotel space and transit hubs should also be attractive.
“I would be wildly surprised for MetLife to not be chosen as a venue,” Matheson said in an email.
While officials have not released the main bid document, a 50-page "Human Rights Report" for the New York-New Jersey application is available online.
It suggests New York City would play an outsized role in World Cup events.
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The report, which covers topics such as workers' rights and the potential for human trafficking, cites the NYPD's security experience and the many luxury hotel and dining accommodations in the city.
“We’ll always be in the shadow of New York City. We've just got to get comfortable with it,” said Jim Kirkos, president of the Meadowlands Chamber, the local business association, which has endorsed the bid to FIFA.
If it wins the World Cup, the Meadowlands region would be expected to add some 5,000 hotel rooms by 2026 to the existing 15,000 in the area, according to the Human Rights report, which was submitted to FIFA last June. The document doesn't explain how that 33% growth spurt would be achieved.
Either Dallas or Manhattan would house the FIFA headquarters for the duration of the World Cup, according to a “bid book” posted online by the U.S Soccer Federation.
The 427-room Hilton Meadowlands in East Rutherford and the 244-room Mandarin Oriental hotel in Manhattan could serve as FIFA’s “VIP hotel.” The bid proposes FIFA’s official Fan Fest could be held at Liberty State Park, which could accommodate 80,000 guests, according to the document. Central Park in Manhattan is another option, it says.
During the FIFA tour last year, officials said six venues in addition to MetLife would be used as training facilities for soccer teams, including Rutgers and Kean universities, the Pingry School in Bernards Township, Red Bull Arena in Harrison and the Red Bulls' training facility in Whippany.
Transit nightmares
Unaddressed in any of the public documents is how New Jersey plans to head off the transportation mishaps experienced at past mega-events at the Meadowlands.
After the 2014 Super Bowl,an estimated 33,000 riders overwhelmed the NJ Transit rail shuttle out of MetLife, leaving people stranded on platforms for hours. In 2019,WrestleMania 35 fansran into similar bottlenecks.
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Last summer, NJ Transitapproved a $3.5 million contract to Missouri-based HNTB Corp, to designa dedicated transit routethat could carry upwards of 20,000 people an hourbetween the Meadowlands complex andthe Secaucus Junction transit hub.
The system could utilize abandoned roadways and rail lines. NJ Transit said the goal is to have the system up and running in time for the World Cup.
In a statement, spokesperson Jim Smith said that the agency would be able to handle World Cupridership levels and “deliver a world-class experience," with both communication and staffing expected to be better than in the past.
