When Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took control of the 49ers in 2017, they had the daunting challenge of building the team nearly from scratch. In 2019 the Niners won the NFC Championship, and now they’ve been to four of the last five.
Key adjustments have helped the Niners stay in contention. After losing the NFC Championship to the Rams in 2021 in part due to Jaquiski Tartt dropping a gimme interception, the Niners finally added ball skills to the secondary.
From 2017 through 2021 the 49ers were tied for last in the league in picks, believing a pass rush was all that was needed. After making the change in the secondary, the Niners vaulted to first in the league in interceptions and have been near the top ever since.
Additional adjustments included dealing for a known commodity at running back rather than throwing draft picks at the position and Christian McCaffrey had an instant impact. Moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy was a massive upgrade.
Now after two losses to Kansas City in the Super Bowl, patterns are clear. More adjustments are needed, more potential leaps forward are out there. The question is if they will be pursued. What stands between the Niners and a championship?
1. Lack of investment in the offensive line.
The Niners do invest in left tackle: see lock Hall of Famer Trent Williams. However, in the other four slots on the line, their investment is one of the lowest in the league at $10.94 million. By comparison this year the Rams will spend over $54 million on those four slots.
In the 2019 Super Bowl, Garoppolo under pressure was 1-9 with two interceptions, it decided the game. In 2023, Kansas City had nine unblocked blitzers that decided the game. Playoff games are won on matchups, the Niners continue to lose on the offensive line and fall short.
So given that, why don’t Shanahan and Lynch adjust? Because Shanahan’s cap and draft strategy calls for scrimping on the line to spend on offensive weapons and defensive linemen.
If Shanahan changed course and invested in the line it would blow up his roster blueprint. So we hear about the line improving with continuity, and they got to the Super Bowl.
And if the team continues to fall short due to losing on the offensive line? “Just a few breaks. That’s football.” No, that’s a failed blueprint that can take them to the Super Bowl but no further.
In my view, Shanahan’s blueprint is why they lost to Kansas City in both Super Bowls and why the Niners will not win a ring until this barrier is fixed. The talent gap is too great at the four other slots on the line.
Scrimping on the offensive line in free agency and the draft has cost them hardware. If they aren’t going to spend big in free agency at OL, then the offensive line needs early picks.
“But Chris Foerster just said he doesn’t need early picks.” What else is he going to say? He can’t call out Shanahan’s neglect of the line, not his place to do so. That question must be posed to Shanahan, the one making that decision.
2. The offensive coordinator making the early picks leads to bias and busts.
Not surprisingly, the early draft focus is on the weapons that touch the ball, Shanahan prioritizes his chess pieces. No one in the organization tells him no, so this has been happening since 2017. Shanahan is the proverbial kid in a candy store.
What’s wrong with that? Fans point to the loss of draft picks in the Trey Lance trade and they’re right. But keep going. Cam Latu, Ty Davis-Price, Danny Gray, Trey Sermon, Jalen Hurd, Dante Pettis, C.J. Beathard, and Joe Williams. A 2nd, six 3rds, and a 4th. We’ll see on Latu and Gray but as of now eight busts, nearly all Day 2 picks, and all weapon picks. Plus Lance.
This year two wide receivers selected and no tackle, in the best tackle draft class in more than a decade. That’s what happens when your offensive coordinator is making the early picks.
I get pushback that Lynch is the GM. In name, yes. But Lynch has said, “Kyle has the 53, I have the 90.” If there was any question over who makes the early picks, this draft answered it.
3. Not using what the draft gives you.
The draft gives you the best class at center and tackle in more than a decade and you don’t pick one. Wrong answer. Next year’s draft is loaded on defense in the 1st, what will the Niners probably do? Tight end in the first, running back in the 2nd.
4. Too predictable.
This is one they are addressing right now.
Left-handed running game, under 2 ypc going right in the SB. Draft Puni, but he goes to left guard next year. Defense not masking coverages. Lacking the players for 12 personnel on offense and simulated pressure on defense. Now they’re adding the players and coaches to fix that on defense.
5. Related point, they need more sacks from non-defensive linemen.
Part of getting less predictable on defense is bringing the pressure from anywhere. Leaguewide trend, Niners need to join it. Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha can play the run and blitz, very important additions in skillsets. Ji’Ayir Brown, same thing.
6. Bigger picture, they can pivot if they choose to do so.
Once Trent Williams retires, Shanahan will have the freedom to change. He can invest in a balanced line. He can change the cap strategy. If he replaces Williams with a draft pick that’s possible. If he signs an expensive free agent or trades for one then he’s locked in yet again. Kyle is a creature of habit, he would prefer the Trent path. But we’ll see what transpires, the option is there to change.
Williams is under contract through 2026 at 38, at that point, his body may force retirement. Chances are Shanahan will be happy to keep playing him if Williams wants to keep going.
7. The lack of a sounding board for Shanahan.
Shanahan is one of the best play designers and script writers in the league. As a head coach, he’s had some missteps. Freezing when DeVonta Smith trapped the ball in Philly. Deebo not touching the ball for the final nine minutes of the NFC Championship against the Rams. Not knowing the overtime rules in the Super Bowl.
Kyle needs a right-hand man, a sounding board. Who? Depends on who he would listen to, Chris Simms as a friend and former QB, Gary Kubiak as a graybeard that knows the system if he wants to get involved again. There are options, the bigger question is if Shanahan would accept it.
Important changes, and small tweaks, all add up. As of now in my view, they are what stand between the Niners and a title.
