How M.K. Stalin secured his southern citadel (2024)

UPDATED: Jun 12, 2024 18:02 IST

(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 17, 2024)

Chief Minister M.K. Stalin’s rallying cry of ‘Naarpathum Namathe’ (All Forty are Ours) resounded loudly, enabling his Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) to sweep all 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in Tamil Nadu, along with the lone Puduch*erry seat. For the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), hoping to reverse its fortunes after the 2019 setback—when it had won just one seat, down from 37 in 2014—this complete rout proved to be yet another disappointment.

In the wake of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s push into the southern citadel, the contest was also seen as a clash between Hindutva and the Dravidian ideology. Denying the saffron party a toehold, the DMK chief came up trumps in that battle too. “It’s a massive, historic victory for our DMK-led alliance,” Stalin declared after the win. “The BJP’s plan to rewrite the Constitution and its hate campaign failed to cut ice with people.”

Having stitched together a winning coalition with the Congress, the Left and other like-minded parties even while in the Opposition, the DMK persisted with it. Stalin’s welfare initiatives, particularly those empowering women voters—otherwise a core AIADMK voter base since its founder M.G. Ramachandran’s era—proved catalytic. Free bus travel for women, monthly Rs 1,000 allowance for women heads of households and free school meals resonated deeply with the working class. But some analysts do attribute the SPA’s spectacular win to “Modi phobia” rather than any pro-incumbency for the DMK regime.

As the DMK surged ahead, the AIADMK- and BJP-led fronts vied for runner-up position. While the AIADMK emerged second in 24 seats, with allies coming second in three more, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) finished second in just 12 constituencies. The BJP state chief K. Annamalai’s high-decibel campaign in Coimbatore fizzled out with his massive defeat to the DMK’s Ganapathy P. Rajkumar by over 118,000 votes. Former AIADMK chief minister O. Panneerselvam’s candidacy as an NDA-backed Independent in Ramanathapuram also came a cropper.

“A coherent Dravidian identity narrative, state autonomy plank and the grassroots organisational prowess helped the DMK secure its fortress,” says political analyst Ramu Manivannan. Making the DMK’s triumph even more remarkable is the fact that for the first time since 1967 a ruling party-led alliance has achieved a clean sweep in the state, the previous such feats a preserve of the Opposition benches. DMK insiders attribute it to sustained alliance cohesion since 2019 and meticulous constituency-level efforts. Its ally Congress reaped rich dividends, with all nine candidates, including former bureaucrat Sasikanth Senthil (Thiruvallur), getting a ticket to the Lok Sabha.

The agenda ahead

With the legislative assembly election just two years away, the BJP’s hopes of forging its own alliance, without having to piggyback on Dravidian majors, have receded with this Lok Sabha election. One silver lining could be its vote share nearly tripling and reaching double digits from 2019’s 3.7 per cent to 11.2 per cent. That, though, is more due to the BJP contesting 23 seats, up from five in the previous election. The AIADMK, too, seems ill-prepared for the 2026 assembly hustings. “The BJP’s conscious strategy has enfeebled the AIADMK. Internal criticism is inevitable, but with the defeat of breakaway leaders T.T.V. Dhinakaran and O. Panneerselvam (OPS), Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS, the Opposition leader) remains a force to reckon with,” Manivannan says.

The prospect of the BJP reworking its strategy and extending a hand to the AIADMK remains. “Teaming up didn’t pay dividends in the past, but the temptation to jointly stir up any anti-incumbency sentiment against the DMK regime may persist,” says Chennai-based political commentator N. Sathia Moorthy. To expand in Tamil Nadu, the BJP will have to considerably temper its Hindutva pitch, counter perceptions of being anti-South and, most importantly, says Moorthy, authenticate its embrace of Tamil culture beyond tokenisms like “brandishing the Sengol”.

That said, the DMK too has to brace for more battles with the Centre as it will now have to deal with a more aggressive governor in R.N. Ravi, who has stalled legislations and stirred controversies over the customary addresses to the legislative assembly. This gubernatorial friction aside, financial devolution, delimitation and inter-state river disputes loom as other flashpoints. n

Subscribe to India Today Magazine